The Underwriting Thesis
The DFW data center market holds 869.5 MW of existing inventory with 425.1 MW under construction — 78% of which is already preleased. ERCOT has 239 GW of large-load interconnection requests pending. The market is not speculative. It is structurally undersupplied in a region where power is available, taxes are favorable, and hyperscale demand is accelerating.
The Lone Star Compute Campus is a 52-acre, 300,000 SF gross development targeting 36 MW of critical IT load in Phase 1, expandable to 72 MW ultimate capacity. The campus is designed as a Tier III+ concurrently maintainable facility with an 8 MW direct liquid cooling hall for AI workloads and standard rack densities of 8–15 kW/rack for traditional enterprise tenants.
What separates this underwrite from the market noise is discipline. Power-first, not land-first. Contracted megawatts, not occupancy rates. Milestone-based capital deployment, not speculative construction. This is how institutional capital underwrites data centers — and it is the standard Bonica Capital applies to every engagement.
What Creates Value. What Destroys It.
"This is not occupancy. This is contracted megawatts."
Value Creators
Value Destroyers
Campus Specifications
A Tier III+ AI-ready campus built for the next decade. 52 acres. 300,000 SF gross. 140,000 SF white space. Dual-feed utility target with one-line verified. The AI zone in Phase 1 is an 8 MW direct liquid cooling hall capable of 50–80+ kW/rack — purpose-built for the GPU clusters that hyperscale and enterprise AI tenants require.
| Gross Site | 52 Acres | Initial Campus | 36 MW Critical IT Load |
| Expansion Capacity | 72 MW Ultimate | Gross Building Size | 300,000 SF |
| White Space | ~140,000 SF | Tier Target | Tier III+ / Concurrently Maintainable |
| Utility Feeds | Dual-Feed (one-line verified) | Redundancy | N+1 Mechanical · Robust Electrical |
| AI Zone (Phase 1) | 8 MW Direct Liquid Cooling | Standard Rack Density | 8–15 kW/rack |
| AI Hall Rack Density | 50–80+ kW/rack | Cooling Strategy | High-Efficiency Air + DLC Zone |
Capital Follows Conviction — Not Speculation
Three disciplined phases. No blind speculative spend.
$642M — Every Dollar Accounted For
~$17.8/W blended — Tier III+ AI-ready, Texas market-calibrated
| Cost Bucket | $MM |
|---|---|
| Land Acquisition | $18.2M |
| Sitework / Entitlement / Civil | $32.0M |
| Utility Upgrades / Feeders / Substation | $74.0M |
| Shell and Core | $105.0M |
| Electrical Plant | $158.0M |
| Mechanical / Cooling Plant | $122.0M |
| Network / Security / DCIM / BMS | $24.0M |
| Soft Costs / Design / Legal / Permits | $31.0M |
| Contingency | $28.0M |
| IDC / Financing / Reserves | $30.0M |
| Green-Tech Package | $20.0M |
| Total | $642.2M |
A $642M Stack Built for Institutional Confidence
| Source | $MM | % |
|---|---|---|
| Senior Construction Loan | $385.3M | 60.0% |
| C-PACE / Green Assessment | $51.4M | 8.0% |
| GP / LP Common Equity | $205.5M | 32.0% |
| Total | $642.2M | 100.0% |
Debt Assumptions
C-PACE Note: Attractive green financing — requires first-mortgage lender consent given its senior lien position. Verified pre-close.
The Promote Is Earned — Not Assumed
LP Returns
GP Returns
"The GP only achieves outsized returns if the LP achieves exceptional returns. The alignment is absolute."
Stress Tests & Downside Cases
We don't just model success. We model failure.
Utility Delay (12 Months)
Interest during construction (IDC) increases. Project-level IRR drops by ~180 bps.
Milestone funding prevents major capital deployment until the utility path is contractually cleared and long-lead items are secured.
Lease-Up Stalls (50% Occ.)
DSCR drops to ~1.05x. Equity distributions halt. Effective cost per watt spikes.
Phased build architecture. We do not commence construction on Phase 2 until Phase 1 is 70%+ leased.
OpEx Blowout (+20%)
Stabilized NOI drops by ~$4.6M. Implied exit value drops by ~$70M.
Power costs (40–60% of OpEx) are passed through to tenants. Maintenance and security contracts are locked pre-energization.
Technology Obsolescence
Liquid cooling becomes mandatory for all new deployments; air-cooled infrastructure becomes obsolete.
Slab-on-grade design supports 350+ lbs/sqft. Chilled water loops are pre-sized and routed to support direct-to-chip cooling retrofits.
Why Bonica Capital for Data Center Underwriting
Most real estate advisory firms treat data centers like office buildings with better tenants. They underwrite occupancy instead of contracted megawatts. They model PUE as a footnote instead of a deal-defining variable. They ignore energization timelines — the single most common IRR killer in data center development.
Bonica Capital brings institutional-grade underwriting discipline to data center development: power-path analysis, utility interconnection risk modeling, contracted MW ramp schedules, AI-density premium capture, and phased capital deployment structures that protect LP capital at every milestone. The Lone Star Compute Campus underwrite is a demonstration of that capability — applied to a real site, with real market data, and zero heroic assumptions.
If you are developing, acquiring, or capitalizing a data center asset and need underwriting that will withstand institutional scrutiny — this is the work we do.
Full Underwriting Memorandum
Review the complete 21-page institutional underwriting package below.
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